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UK unemployment set to rise until 2016

UK unemployment is set to rise until 2016, according to a public announcement by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). Over the next five years almost all regions in the UK will experience unemployment increases as the effect of the worst government spending squeeze since the Second World War takes its toll.

Unemployment rates in the worst affected regions will climb above the national average by 2016. Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the North East are regions expected to have the longest queues at job centres by 2016. This is owing to the region’s higher dependency on state employment. London, East England and the South East are likely to escape the disheartening unemployment trend.

The figures

According to the CEBR employment outlook, unemployment rates in the North East will raise from 12 per cent in 2012 to 13 per cent in 2016. Joblessness in Northern Ireland will climb from 8.8 per cent to 10.7 per cent by 2016. 13 per cent of a large section of public-sector workers in this region will probably be out of work by 2016.

The CEBR employment projections, however, are somewhat better for workers in Eastern England. Unemployment rate in Eastern England will reach its peak of 7.1 per cent in 2014 and then begin to fall. South East England, the least dependent region on state jobs, will suffer employment rate fall of 5.6 per cent. This will represents the largest unemployment rate anywhere in the country.

Some kind of relief

London, the South East and East of England are the only regions expected to escape the depressing employment trend. London will lead the way in private sector job creation during much of this period. Unemployment in London will rise from 10.3 per cent in 2012 to 10.7 percent in 2013 and remain here until 2016.

During the announcement of the CEBR employment outlook, Rob Harbron, an economist at the institute, made it clear that: “Five more years of pain are expected for much of the UK”. He said, “The outlook is tough for UK households, particularly those in places with a high dependency on public sector employment.”

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